Post-mortem on 2024-12-23
Summary
Habits that occurred on | 200 |
---|---|
Habits that lacked prior history | 15 |
Habits that were predictable | 185 |
Prediction error
Distribution of habit date counts
Distribution of durations
Distribution of habit counts
Reference
- exponential average
- Use the exponential moving average duration with a constant smoothing factor to make the prediction
- Holt-Winters
- Use the Holt-Winters double exponentially smoothed average duration to make the prediction
- last occurrence
- Use the last occurrence as the prediction
- mean
- Use the average duration to make the prediction
- moving
- Use the simple moving average duration over the last n periods to make the prediction
- weighted
- Use the weighted moving average duration over the last n periods to make the prediction