Post-mortem on 2026-02-27

Summary

Prediction error

Distribution of habit date counts

Distribution of durations

Distribution of habit counts

Reference

exponential average

Use the exponential moving average duration with a constant smoothing factor to make the prediction

Holt-Winters

Use the Holt-Winters double exponentially smoothed average duration to make the prediction

last occurrence

Use the last occurrence as the prediction

mean

Use the average duration to make the prediction

moving

Use the simple moving average duration over the last n periods to make the prediction

weighted

Use the weighted moving average duration over the last n periods to make the prediction